Umbilo River (Stapleton Rd) Isibikezelo Sesikhukhula

Bonisa umlando: Izibikezelo ezedlule

Umkhawulo wesikhukhula (m): Bonisa

Kusukela: Kuya:

Amamodeli Ezulu

Izibalo

Izinga Lamanzi

Okuncinane—

Okumaphakathi—

Okukhulu—

Imvula

Isamba—

Okukhulu Ngehora—

Okumaphakathi Ngehora—

Amahora Emvula—

Ukunemba Kwezibikezelo

MAE (m) ngokwebanga lesibikezelo

Imodeli	1-6h	7-12h	13-24h	25-48h	49-72h	73h+
Ensemble Mean	0.0328	0.0383	0.0430	0.0486	0.0485	0.0523
Best Match	0.0336	0.0416	0.0479	0.0510	0.0528	0.0583
CMA GRAPES	0.0311	0.0371	0.0439	0.0558	0.0593	0.0501
ECMWF AIFS	0.0359	0.0417	0.0445	0.0485	0.0480	0.0553
ECMWF IFS	0.0336	0.0416	0.0479	0.0510	0.0528	0.0583
ECMWF IFS 0.25°	0.0337	0.0384	0.0438	0.0473	0.0476	0.0537
GFS Global	0.0343	0.0402	0.0444	0.0532	0.0514	0.0540
GFS Seamless	0.0343	0.0402	0.0444	0.0532	0.0514	0.0540
MET Norway	0.0336	0.0416	0.0479	0.0510	0.0528	0.0583
NCEP AI-GFS	0.0352	0.0391	0.0445	0.0485	0.0467	0.0602
NCEP HGEFS	0.0352	0.0404	0.0437	0.0481	0.0488	0.0510
UKMO Global	0.0348	0.0429	0.0497	0.0531	0.0577	0.0776

Kususelwa kuqhathaniso oku-967,992 lwesibikezelo nomklamo (sikhathi sonke). Kuvuselelwa njalo ngehora njengoba imibiko emisha iqinisekisa izibikezelo ezedlule.

Lokhu kubalwa kanjani?

Njalo ngehora, uhlelo lwenza izibikezelo zezinga lamanzi zezinsuku ezi-7 ezilandelayo lusebenzisa isibikezelo semvula semodeli yezulu ngayinye. Uma imibiko yangempela ifika, amanani abikezelwe aqhathaniswa nalokho okwenzeke ngempela. I-MAE (Mean Absolute Error) imehluko ophakathi phakathi kwezinga elibikezelwe neliboniwe — okuncane kungcono. Izinhla zihlukanisa izibikezelo ngokuthi zenziwe kudala kangakanani: isibikezelo se-"1-6h" silula kunese-"73h+". Amanani anombala: oluhlaza < 0.02m, ophuzi < 0.05m, o-orenji < 0.1m, obomvu ≥ 0.1m.