Iimodeli Zezulu
Iinkcukacha-manani
Umgangatho Wamanzi
Elona Lincinane—
Phakathi—
Elona Likhulu—
Imvula
Iyonke—
Ephezulu Ngeyure—
Phakathi Ngeyure—
Iiyure Zemvula—
Ukuchaneka Kokuqikelela
MAE (m) ngokuqikelela ubude| Imodeli | 1-6h | 7-12h | 13-24h | 25-48h | 49-72h | 73h+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ensemble Mean | 0.0328 | 0.0383 | 0.0430 | 0.0486 | 0.0485 | 0.0523 |
| Best Match | 0.0336 | 0.0416 | 0.0479 | 0.0510 | 0.0528 | 0.0583 |
| CMA GRAPES | 0.0311 | 0.0371 | 0.0439 | 0.0558 | 0.0593 | 0.0501 |
| ECMWF AIFS | 0.0359 | 0.0417 | 0.0445 | 0.0485 | 0.0480 | 0.0553 |
| ECMWF IFS | 0.0336 | 0.0416 | 0.0479 | 0.0510 | 0.0528 | 0.0583 |
| ECMWF IFS 0.25° | 0.0337 | 0.0384 | 0.0438 | 0.0473 | 0.0476 | 0.0537 |
| GFS Global | 0.0343 | 0.0402 | 0.0444 | 0.0532 | 0.0514 | 0.0540 |
| GFS Seamless | 0.0343 | 0.0402 | 0.0444 | 0.0532 | 0.0514 | 0.0540 |
| MET Norway | 0.0336 | 0.0416 | 0.0479 | 0.0510 | 0.0528 | 0.0583 |
| NCEP AI-GFS | 0.0352 | 0.0391 | 0.0445 | 0.0485 | 0.0467 | 0.0602 |
| NCEP HGEFS | 0.0352 | 0.0404 | 0.0437 | 0.0481 | 0.0488 | 0.0510 |
| UKMO Global | 0.0348 | 0.0429 | 0.0497 | 0.0531 | 0.0577 | 0.0776 |
Kususelwa kuthelekiso olu-967,992 phakathi kwesiqikelelo nomqwalaselo (lonke ixesha). Kuhlaziywa ngeyure nganye njengoko imibiko emitsha iqinisekisa iziqikelelo ezidlulileyo.
Oku kubalwa njani?
Ngeyure nganye, inkqubo yenza iziqikelelo zomgangatho wamanzi zeentsuku ezi-7 ezilandelayo isebenzisa ukuqikelela kwemvula kwemodeli yezulu nganye. Xa imibiko yokwenyani ifika, amaxabiso aqikelelweyo athelekiswa noko kwenzeke ngokwenene. I-MAE (Mean Absolute Error) ngumahluko ophakathi phakathi komgangatho oqikelelweyo noqwalaselweyo — okuncinci kungcono. Iikholamu zahlula iziqikelelo ngokuba zenziwe kwangaphambili kangakanani: isiqikelelo se-"1-6h" silula kunese-"73h+". Amaxabiso anombala: eluhlaza < 0.02m, emthubi < 0.05m, e-orenji < 0.1m, ebomvu ≥ 0.1m.