Mzinyathi River Isibikezelo Sesikhukhula

Bonisa umlando: Izibikezelo ezedlule

Umkhawulo wesikhukhula (m): Bonisa

Kusukela: Kuya:

Amamodeli Ezulu

Izibalo

Izinga Lamanzi

Okuncinane—

Okumaphakathi—

Okukhulu—

Imvula

Isamba—

Okukhulu Ngehora—

Okumaphakathi Ngehora—

Amahora Emvula—

Ukunemba Kwezibikezelo

MAE (m) ngokwebanga lesibikezelo

Imodeli	1-6h	7-12h	13-24h	25-48h	49-72h	73h+
Ensemble Mean	0.0176	0.0332	0.0456	0.0553	0.0598	0.0662
Best Match	0.0173	0.0329	0.0442	0.0519	0.0544	0.0637
CMA GRAPES	0.0169	0.0322	0.0470	0.0617	0.0640	0.0571
ECMWF AIFS	0.0204	0.0398	0.0552	0.0669	0.0728	0.0869
ECMWF IFS	0.0171	0.0329	0.0449	0.0529	0.0561	0.0672
ECMWF IFS 0.25°	0.0184	0.0360	0.0486	0.0572	0.0608	0.0728
GFS Global	0.0178	0.0327	0.0442	0.0532	0.0582	0.0653
GFS Seamless	0.0178	0.0327	0.0442	0.0532	0.0582	0.0653
MET Norway	0.0171	0.0329	0.0449	0.0529	0.0561	0.0672
NCEP AI-GFS	0.0194	0.0376	0.0529	0.0655	0.0713	0.0803
NCEP HGEFS	0.0177	0.0325	0.0441	0.0555	0.0622	0.0727
UKMO Global	0.0189	0.0359	0.0502	0.0621	0.0713	0.0799

Kususelwa kuqhathaniso oku-8,269,812 lwesibikezelo nomklamo (sikhathi sonke). Kuvuselelwa njalo ngehora njengoba imibiko emisha iqinisekisa izibikezelo ezedlule.

Lokhu kubalwa kanjani?

Njalo ngehora, uhlelo lwenza izibikezelo zezinga lamanzi zezinsuku ezi-7 ezilandelayo lusebenzisa isibikezelo semvula semodeli yezulu ngayinye. Uma imibiko yangempela ifika, amanani abikezelwe aqhathaniswa nalokho okwenzeke ngempela. I-MAE (Mean Absolute Error) imehluko ophakathi phakathi kwezinga elibikezelwe neliboniwe — okuncane kungcono. Izinhla zihlukanisa izibikezelo ngokuthi zenziwe kudala kangakanani: isibikezelo se-"1-6h" silula kunese-"73h+". Amanani anombala: oluhlaza < 0.02m, ophuzi < 0.05m, o-orenji < 0.1m, obomvu ≥ 0.1m.