Mzinyathi River Ukuqikelela Kwesikhukhula

Bonisa imbali: Ukuqikelela okudlulileyo

Umda wesikhukhula (m): Bonisa

Ukusuka: Ukuya:

Iimodeli Zezulu

Iinkcukacha-manani

Umgangatho Wamanzi

Elona Lincinane—

Phakathi—

Elona Likhulu—

Imvula

Iyonke—

Ephezulu Ngeyure—

Phakathi Ngeyure—

Iiyure Zemvula—

Ukuchaneka Kokuqikelela

MAE (m) ngokuqikelela ubude

Imodeli	1-6h	7-12h	13-24h	25-48h	49-72h	73h+
Ensemble Mean	0.0176	0.0332	0.0456	0.0553	0.0598	0.0662
Best Match	0.0173	0.0329	0.0442	0.0519	0.0544	0.0637
CMA GRAPES	0.0169	0.0322	0.0470	0.0617	0.0640	0.0571
ECMWF AIFS	0.0204	0.0398	0.0552	0.0669	0.0728	0.0869
ECMWF IFS	0.0171	0.0329	0.0449	0.0529	0.0561	0.0672
ECMWF IFS 0.25°	0.0184	0.0360	0.0486	0.0572	0.0608	0.0728
GFS Global	0.0178	0.0327	0.0442	0.0532	0.0582	0.0653
GFS Seamless	0.0178	0.0327	0.0442	0.0532	0.0582	0.0653
MET Norway	0.0171	0.0329	0.0449	0.0529	0.0561	0.0672
NCEP AI-GFS	0.0194	0.0376	0.0529	0.0655	0.0713	0.0803
NCEP HGEFS	0.0177	0.0325	0.0441	0.0555	0.0622	0.0727
UKMO Global	0.0189	0.0359	0.0502	0.0621	0.0713	0.0799

Kususelwa kuthelekiso olu-8,269,812 phakathi kwesiqikelelo nomqwalaselo (lonke ixesha). Kuhlaziywa ngeyure nganye njengoko imibiko emitsha iqinisekisa iziqikelelo ezidlulileyo.

Oku kubalwa njani?

Ngeyure nganye, inkqubo yenza iziqikelelo zomgangatho wamanzi zeentsuku ezi-7 ezilandelayo isebenzisa ukuqikelela kwemvula kwemodeli yezulu nganye. Xa imibiko yokwenyani ifika, amaxabiso aqikelelweyo athelekiswa noko kwenzeke ngokwenene. I-MAE (Mean Absolute Error) ngumahluko ophakathi phakathi komgangatho oqikelelweyo noqwalaselweyo — okuncinci kungcono. Iikholamu zahlula iziqikelelo ngokuba zenziwe kwangaphambili kangakanani: isiqikelelo se-"1-6h" silula kunese-"73h+". Amaxabiso anombala: eluhlaza < 0.02m, emthubi < 0.05m, e-orenji < 0.1m, ebomvu ≥ 0.1m.