Mzinyathi River Flood Forecast

Show history: Past forecasts

Flood threshold (m): Show

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Weather Models

Statistics

Water Level

Min—

Mean—

Max—

Rainfall

Total—

Max Hourly—

Mean Hourly—

Wet Hours—

Forecast Accuracy

MAE (m) by forecast horizon

Model	1-6h	7-12h	13-24h	25-48h	49-72h	73h+
Ensemble Mean	0.0176	0.0332	0.0456	0.0553	0.0598	0.0662
Best Match	0.0173	0.0329	0.0442	0.0519	0.0544	0.0637
CMA GRAPES	0.0169	0.0322	0.0470	0.0617	0.0640	0.0571
ECMWF AIFS	0.0204	0.0398	0.0552	0.0669	0.0728	0.0869
ECMWF IFS	0.0171	0.0329	0.0449	0.0529	0.0561	0.0672
ECMWF IFS 0.25°	0.0184	0.0360	0.0486	0.0572	0.0608	0.0728
GFS Global	0.0178	0.0327	0.0442	0.0532	0.0582	0.0653
GFS Seamless	0.0178	0.0327	0.0442	0.0532	0.0582	0.0653
MET Norway	0.0171	0.0329	0.0449	0.0529	0.0561	0.0672
NCEP AI-GFS	0.0194	0.0376	0.0529	0.0655	0.0713	0.0803
NCEP HGEFS	0.0177	0.0325	0.0441	0.0555	0.0622	0.0727
UKMO Global	0.0189	0.0359	0.0502	0.0621	0.0713	0.0799

Based on 8,269,812 prediction-observation comparisons (all-time). Updates every hour as new observations verify past predictions.

How is this calculated?

Each hour, the system generates water level predictions for the next 7 days using each weather model's rainfall forecast. Once real observations come in, the predicted values are compared against what actually happened. MAE (Mean Absolute Error) is the average difference between predicted and observed levels — lower is better. Columns group predictions by how far ahead they were made: a "1-6h" prediction is easier to get right than a "73h+" one. Values are colour-coded: green < 0.02m, yellow < 0.05m, orange < 0.1m, red ≥ 0.1m.